Is Machine Learning Over

canada goose sale uk In what ways is machine learning overrated? originally appeared on Quora: the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to learn from others and better understand the world. canada goose sale uk

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canada goose jacket uk The most common belief is that machine learning is more general and more powerful than it really is. Machine learning is uk canada goose good at things machine learning is good at and, of course, it’s bad at everything Canada Goose Parka else. If you listen to some people though, you’d believe you could throw a neural net at any problem and get a solid solution. canada goose jacket uk

canada goose outlet nyc I mostly chalk this down to inexperience and misplaced enthusiasm, but it’s also a result of aggressive hype by people who should know better. Karpathy’s recent viral post Software 2.0 is a great example: he makes some interesting points but leaves you with Canada Goose sale an impression that deep learning is the future of programming. The article somehow elides how problems canadian goose jacket outside a few niches (vision, speech, NLP, robotics) aren’t clearly amenable to this approach. It’s not just systems software; even most areas of business logic are still better uk canada goose outlet solved by somebody experienced writing a few hundred lines of code than machine learning. canada goose outlet nyc

canada goose outlet location If anything gets to be “software Canada Goose Jackets 2.0” it’s garbage collection and high level languages, and deep learning isn’t even “software 3.0”. Neural nets are “just ‘another tool in your machine learning toolbox'” and, more importantly, machine learning is just another tool in your programming toolbox! canada goose outlet location

canada goose outlet toronto address This has real consequences. I see people putting massive resources canada goose uk shop into machine learning based systems when simpler solutions would be both faster to build andmore effective. Take the problem of forecasting demand for items at a store. You could try canada goose coats on sale doing this as a pure machine canada goose factory sale learning canada goose black friday sale system, but the system would struggle and ultimately fail to extract all the structure you need from your data. There are a lot of factors that matter, and some aren’t going to show up in data you can realistically work with. We’d be far Canada Goose Coats On Sale better off modeling a bunch of things explicitly (demand elasticity based on pricing and promotions) and relying on human experience for others (changes in consumer fashion). canada goose outlet toronto address

canada goose uk The ideal system for solving a lot of hard problems has to be a hybrid: some machine learning based on data, some explicit modeling, and some interactive ways to take advantage of experts. But too many people don’t design problems like this because they see machine learning as canada goose store a panacea and see building a black box that operates solely on data as a goal. canada goose uk

canada goose shop uk I’m not surprised by this state of events. The open secret of research academic orindustrial is that only the things that work see the light of day. How many problems have numerous teams tried to solve with machine learning an failed? You don’t hear about many of them except through back channels if you chat with active researchers in the field. (One example: I know a bunch of people have tried and failed to apply deep learning to various problems in program synthesis, but only because I heard it through a research grapevine.) canada goose shop uk

canada goose womens outlet A related problem is that people overstate the impact of machine learning in a product. A lot of consumer products now feature machine learning at their core think of Quora and Facebook’s feed. Since machine learning is the new hotness and deeply technical, the products’ success must be due to machine learning! canada goose womens outlet

canada goose outlet paypal The thing buy canada goose jacket is, I bet the impact of machine learning is marginal at best: most of the effect is explained by the social design of the tools. What really matters is that Quora has a feed and lets you follow people and topics. I would not be surprised if a much rougher algorithm (perhaps a heuristic based rules engine) could produce a feed canada goose uk black friday as good as if not better than Quora’s! I use other products that have a similar design to Quora without any “machine learning” (like Reddit) and, https://www.canadagoosejacketsoutsale.com frankly, my Reddit front page does a better job surfacing things I care about than Quora does! (The rest of Quora’s design the non machine learny bits fit me a lot better than Reddit.) canada goose outlet paypal

canada goose outlet winnipeg One thing I find illuminating canada goose coats is how many quantitative trading shops have notembraced machine learning whole heartedly. buy canada goose jacket cheap Some have, of course, but a bunch of others continue making obscene amounts of money with relatively straightforward hand tuned algorithms. Again: a rules engine filled with expert written heuristics works eerily well! Some strategies were developed or discovered with machine learning techniques canada goose clearance sale (also known as “statistics”) but others are created more thanks to deep domain expertise. canada goose outlet winnipeg

canada goose outlet in montreal My point is not that machine learning is useless for trading: it clearly has its place. Rather, the point is that it very much does not rule the roost, contrary to what you might expect just from hype. canada goose outlet in montreal

canada goose outlet black friday The final ways I see machine learning being overrated is going to be painfully familiar to anyone who’s tried implementing machine canada goose outlet learning systems in production: machine cheap canada goose uk learning is way more fiddly than it seems. canada goose outlet black friday

canada goose outlet orlando You might think you can just apply some machine learning algorithm you’ve heard about to your problem, but chances are it won’t work nearly as well as the blog post or paper you got it from. A lot of details never make it to papers; they exist solely as institutional knowledge among professionals in the field. You’ll need to spend a lot of time configuring the algorithm for your problem, even if your problem is almost identical to the original you’re working from. You’ll need to tune hyperparameters, find the right architecture, pre process your data in weird ways, maybe even restate parts of your problem You can’t just throw your problem at an existing algorithm; you’ll either need extensive experience or a lot of trial and error. canada goose outlet orlando

canada goose outlet mall Machine learning is a powerful, useful set of techniques and has allowed us to solve problems we couldn’t have handled before. The supply chain optimization system I’m working on today, for example, will benefit from adding some machine learning systems on top of the classical operations research foundation we have now. canada goose outlet mall

canada goose outlet in chicago But, canada goose all that said, machine learning is nowhere near as general, cheap Canada Goose powerful or impactful as people seem to believe! canada goose outlet in chicago

canada goose outlet miami footnotes If I had to make a bet on what future technology will be worth calling “software 3.0”, I’d say it’s interactive development with tools backed by program synthesis. But that Canada Goose Online might just be wishful thinking and it is a long way out! canada goose outlet miami

canada goose outlet online uk This question originally appeared on Quora the place to gain and share knowledge, empowering people to Canada Goose online learn from others and better understand the world. You can follow Quora on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. More questions: canada goose outlet online uk.